30% of the offer is "variable" and I finally asked what it's actually paid out the last three years

Total comp on the offer looked great. Base was about 10% under what I'm on now, with the gap covered by a performance bonus of "up to 30%."

Asked a friend of a friend who works there. It's paid between 40 and 60 percent of target for three years running, because there's a company-wide multiplier nobody at my level influences. So the realistic number is meaningfully below what I earn today.

Went back to the recruiter and asked for the historical payout percentage. "We don't share that." That's an answer too.

Ask the question before you sign. "Up to" is doing a huge amount of work in these letters.